Valuation Question for 66 GT350

[Vernon Estes]

I tend to agree with Bigfoot that some of the numbers mentioned here sound aggressive...but I think also some might possibly be confusing carryover values with other 66 values?

My general opinion...carryovers are easily high 100s to low 200k cars right now. Really good carryovers can go in the mid 2s. Other 66s, generally hertz cars can range from 100k-145k depending on the quality of an automatic car..factory 4 speed cars are obviously much more. Automatic 66 non hertz cars are about the same or maybe a bit more than the equivalent hertz car. Factory 4 speed 66s tend to range from what I see from 140-175k for most cars.

Keep in mind, the prices i am quoting are for nicely restored cars that can also be driven. Concours cars are more and so are totally unrestored cars. The better unrestored car the higher the price. Just a lot of moving parts to consider.

I will say that the $200k assumed above would be tough to get for a late 66, even in concours spec. Before the forum went down, an early to mid production over ride traction bar car in red which was concours condition was listed at either 185k or 195k, does anyone remember? Seemed like a nice car, none of my business what it ended up bringing, but that is a good comparison to make. An earlier 66 is technically going to be better than a later one for market value (even though Ill be the first to debate how much serial number really matters unless we are talking carryovers).  $200k is just a tough number to get to on a 66 other than a carryover unless the car is a truly spectacular restoration which costs lots of $$$ to do above and beyond your typical resto which itself can be very expensive. 

Also, rarely does the costs of car+restoration costs= end value equation actually work. If that were true, then mathematically the end value-restoration costs= costs to buy the project car. Often times a project is worth more than this equation would imply.

Just this guy's 2 cents..

Vern

[SFM6S087]

Vern, thanks for mentioning the carryovers. They do usually bring a slight premium over a full production '66 GT350. Hagerty's is now putting that premium at +35%. I'm not sure how accurate that is, but it's a reasonable starting point.

BTW, the guides like Hagerty Online Valuation Tools, and CPI (Cars of Particular Interest) seem to be on the high side to me. I know they must have some kind of tangible data to base their prices on, but their numbers don't generally match the few sales I hear about.

Steve

[Shelby_r_b]

I tend to agree with Bigfoot that some of the numbers mentioned here sound aggressive...but I think also some might possibly be confusing carryover values with other 66 values?

My general opinion...carryovers are easily high 100s to low 200k cars right now. Really good carryovers can go in the mid 2s. Other 66s, generally hertz cars can range from 100k-145k depending on the quality of an automatic car..factory 4 speed cars are obviously much more. Automatic 66 non hertz cars are about the same or maybe a bit more than the equivalent hertz car. Factory 4 speed 66s tend to range from what I see from 140-175k for most cars.

Keep in mind, the prices i am quoting are for nicely restored cars that can also be driven. Concours cars are more and so are totally unrestored cars. The better unrestored car the higher the price. Just a lot of moving parts to consider.

I will say that the $200k assumed above would be tough to get for a late 66, even in concours spec. Before the forum went down, an early to mid production over ride traction bar car in red which was concours condition was listed at either 185k or 195k, does anyone remember? Seemed like a nice car, none of my business what it ended up bringing, but that is a good comparison to make. An earlier 66 is technically going to be better than a later one for market value (even though Ill be the first to debate how much serial number really matters unless we are talking carryovers).  $200k is just a tough number to get to on a 66 other than a carryover unless the car is a truly spectacular restoration which costs lots of $$$ to do above and beyond your typical resto which itself can be very expensive. 

Also, rarely does the costs of car+restoration costs= end value equation actually work. If that were true, then mathematically the end value-restoration costs= costs to buy the project car. Often times a project is worth more than this equation would imply.

Just this guy's 2 cents..

Vern

I couldn't agree more, Vern.  BTW - the lack sleep induced by the "Little Estes" doesn't seem to be clouding your thinking!  Congrats again!

It's so hard to read the market at times, and I'm certainly no expert.  However, it Hagerty values do seem extremely high on 66s right now.  I also read an article in a magazine recently stating that regular 66s were worth the low $200s...and these were non-carryover cars. 

I don't know what happens with private sales, but I have yet to find anything that backs the high prices that Hargerty gives for 66s.

Also, my 2 cents worth. 

[Vernon Estes]

I couldn't agree more, Vern.  BTW - the lack sleep induced by the "Little Estes" doesn't seem to be clouding your thinking!  Congrats again!

Thanks dude!...yea it just depends on what day you catch me..the little stinker loves to sleep all the time...except when shes supposed to be sleep!! 

[5s386]

non-driver for 140-150k?  IDK about that.  You can buy a nice driver+ all day long around 120-130k.

Just look at past auctions and car listed for sale.


Here is one at 129k

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/shelby/gt350/1971588.html

This same 66 Shelby (1433) was offered for $195K in 2017 by the same dealer.

[Greg]

IMO right now the 66's are the best "value for money" cars because the 65's will naturally pull them up.  Its not unreasonable for 66's to be priced in the $200K range as some prices that people are asking for 65's are North of $400K.  I'm not saying that "non-provenance, non-original drivetrain" 65 or 66's are selling at those levels, but we witnessed the same thing in the 427 vs 289 cobra's.  If the 65's are predicted to go north of $500k  then the 66's will be pushed to north of $300K.

[capecodmustang.com]

And just to confuse everyone...

I sold three 66's last year for under 95K........

[Greg]

And just to confuse everyone...

I sold three 66's last year for under 95K........

I bet they weren't cars that had their original, born with drive train, rust free and 4 speed cars.  If they were, then someone got a smokin deal.

[J_Speegle]

I sold three 66's last year for under 95K........

So your the guy pulling the averages down!!!! LOL

Meant in a fun - kidding way Sure miss the Emojis to suggest intent   

[capecodmustang.com]

Greg:  Actually last year I sold (4) 66's under 95K....
Three out of the four had original engine's...

By saying someone got a "smokin deal" is really suggesting I didn't realize what I was selling....

There's very few 66's worth 175K plus in my opinion.
I own carryover's and I've owned one of the (11) factory 66 Paxton cars.  (The white automatic)
I'd put 4 Speed black Hertz's in that group too.

Just my opinion's.....

Bret

[66S285]

I tend to agree with Bigfoot that some of the numbers mentioned here sound aggressive...but I think also some might possibly be confusing carryover values with other 66 values?

My general opinion...carryovers are easily high 100s to low 200k cars right now. Really good carryovers can go in the mid 2s. Other 66s, generally hertz cars can range from 100k-145k depending on the quality of an automatic car..factory 4 speed cars are obviously much more. Automatic 66 non hertz cars are about the same or maybe a bit more than the equivalent hertz car. Factory 4 speed 66s tend to range from what I see from 140-175k for most cars.

Keep in mind, the prices i am quoting are for nicely restored cars that can also be driven. Concours cars are more and so are totally unrestored cars. The better unrestored car the higher the price. Just a lot of moving parts to consider.

I will say that the $200k assumed above would be tough to get for a late 66, even in concours spec. Before the forum went down, an early to mid production over ride traction bar car in red which was concours condition was listed at either 185k or 195k, does anyone remember? Seemed like a nice car, none of my business what it ended up bringing, but that is a good comparison to make. An earlier 66 is technically going to be better than a later one for market value (even though Ill be the first to debate how much serial number really matters unless we are talking carryovers).  $200k is just a tough number to get to on a 66 other than a carryover unless the car is a truly spectacular restoration which costs lots of $$$ to do above and beyond your typical resto which itself can be very expensive. 

Also, rarely does the costs of car+restoration costs= end value equation actually work. If that were true, then mathematically the end value-restoration costs= costs to buy the project car. Often times a project is worth more than this equation would imply.

Just this guy's 2 cents..

Vern

I couldn't agree more, Vern.  BTW - the lack sleep induced by the "Little Estes" doesn't seem to be clouding your thinking!  Congrats again!

It's so hard to read the market at times, and I'm certainly no expert.  However, it Hagerty values do seem extremely high on 66s right now.  I also read an article in a magazine recently stating that regular 66s were worth the low $200s...and these were non-carryover cars. 

I don't know what happens with private sales, but I have yet to find anything that backs the high prices that Hargerty gives for 66s.

Also, my 2 cents worth.

Hagerty is in the business of insuring cars; they want to think it is worth a lot so you will pay more to insure it.  If you told them a late 66 was worth $225 they would be happy to agree to take your premium.  Classic car insurance is a low risk business with Shelby owners.

[Greg]

This discussion is interesting because if the Hagerty valuation is that far off and nice original 66's are being sold under $95K (which is not what I have personnally seen for nice original cars), then what are 65's truely worth....? 

BTW... the 6970 mile, automatic, green, 66 shelby at Mecum just sold for $275K and the SFM1293 sold for $148,500.  The 65 at Barrett Jackson sold for $325K.

[Bigfoot]

Green car looked nice.
Wish it was a stick!

[shelbydoug]

Yikes. Value? Well, they are worth what you can get for them on the day you go to sell it so really the significance of value is what you will get from your insurance company in the event of a total loss.

If for instance you purchase the car at BJ auction, you are going to have receipts. Receipts that you are going to show your insurance agent what it costs as a representation of value or maybe what replacement value is.

So that kind of makes all the other discussions of your tire kicker friends, dealers, brokers, etc, kind of irrelevant? You have established a MINIMUM value for THAT car and everyone else can basically go piss off.

Be careful on the wording of your policy though. Although you may think that you have an agreed value of the car, some companies will give it to their legal division and attempt to get you to agree to accept a substitute car of equal value. If they can do that, that's some trick?

Listen, they don't hire pencil neck nerds to work 24/7 for them at the risk of being deported as a penalty for settling on too much for nothing.

You are not "In good hands". More like a hand job if you don't pay attention.

You simply are going to have many people telling you that you over paid, it isn't worth that, it isn't worth more then my 69 Chevelle, Hemi Road Runner, etc. That is what is basically called hearsay evidence and means something, but probably not much.

[Greg]

Yikes. Value? Well, they are worth what you can get for them on the day you go to sell it so really the significance of value is what you will get from your insurance company in the event of a total loss.

If for instance you purchase the car at BJ auction, you are going to have receipts. Receipts that you are going to show your insurance agent what it costs as a representation of value or maybe what replacement value is.

So that kind of makes all the other discussions of your tire kicker friends, dealers, brokers, etc, kind of irrelevant? You have established a MINIMUM value for THAT car and everyone else can basically go piss off.

Be careful on the wording of your policy though. Although you may think that you have an agreed value of the car, some companies will give it to their legal division and attempt to get you to agree to accept a substitute car of equal value. If they can do that, that's some trick?

Listen, they don't hire pencil neck nerds to work 24/7 for them at the risk of being deported as a penalty for settling on too much for nothing.

You are not "In good hands". More like a hand job if you don't pay attention.

You simply are going to have many people telling you that you over paid, it isn't worth that, it isn't worth more then my 69 Chevelle, Hemi Road Runner, etc. That is what is basically called hearsay evidence and means something, but probably not much.

Great comment, your are absolutely correct!!