Valuation Question for 66 GT350

[jamesfee]

I started this discussion with Dave Redman but thought that you folks would also have some relevant opinions. As I wrote to Dave, I am probably not going to get around to restoring what had been a B-Production SCCA school car (6S2021). It had been stripped down with the glass and rollcage removed in the early 80's. With the best of intentions, and many life changes later, it has become a repository of other non-moving things in my garage. It's been in the registry since the 80's and has some cute anecdotes but nothing particularly exceptional.
Hagerty Insurance has a Valuation tool that says that the Average value for a 1966 GT-350 runs $198,000 for a #2 Excellent car (and $250,000 for a concours example). Numbers like this scare me since I've hung onto these cars for what feels like just short of forever (I've owned this one since the early 70's). But just for the sake of argument, let's say that if it would take $100,000 to get the chassis into #2 condition, does that mean that my chassis could be worth $98,000 give or take?
I understand that it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but what is a fair method of establishing its worth as it stands? Obviously, it's much easier for completed cars, there are more comparables. The car has significant value but I am in a quandary as to what would be a fair valuation or how to determine it. Asking the folks in the Shelby community seemed like the most reasonable starting point.

jim

[Bob Gaines]

I started this discussion with Dave Redman but thought that you folks would also have some relevant opinions. As I wrote to Dave, I am probably not going to get around to restoring what had been a B-Production SCCA school car (6S2021). It had been stripped down with the glass and rollcage removed in the early 80's. With the best of intentions, and many life changes later, it has become a repository of other non-moving things in my garage. It's been in the registry since the 80's and has some cute anecdotes but nothing particularly exceptional.
Hagerty Insurance has a Valuation tool that says that the Average value for a 1966 GT-350 runs $198,000 for a #2 Excellent car (and $250,000 for a concours example). Numbers like this scare me since I've hung onto these cars for what feels like just short of forever (I've owned this one since the early 70's). But just for the sake of argument, let's say that if it would take $100,000 to get the chassis into #2 condition, does that mean that my chassis could be worth $98,000 give or take?
I understand that it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but what is a fair method of establishing its worth as it stands? Obviously, it's much easier for completed cars, there are more comparables. The car has significant value but I am in a quandary as to what would be a fair valuation or how to determine it. Asking the folks in the Shelby community seemed like the most reasonable starting point.

jim

In case he dosn't read this you should reach out to Bret at Cape Cod Mustang (formally ShelbyMustang .com) he has more experience selling basket case type Shelby's then anyone I know.

[jamesfee]

Thank you, Bob.

[chris NOS]

Hagerty quotes are a bit optimistic !!!

[jamesfee]

Chris, I fully understand that. Part of the problem is that there are so few resources for our specific cars which is what led me to posting the issue here.

[SFM6S087]

Jim, this is strictly my OPINION.

I think you're on the right track. If a car would take $80K in work to be worth $200K, then its current value is probably $120K – give or take a little.

If the car is anything close to presentable, a buyer might pay a little more than that with the idea in mind to simply enjoy the car as it is.

But if the car would require a restoration, then any buyer will probably subtract a little from that $120K number as compensation for their time and trouble during the restoration, and to have a little in reserve for the inevitable and expensive unknowns that always surface during that process.

Again, just my OPINION.

Steve

[jamesfee]

Steve, I appreciate your opinion on this. Yes, there is a bit of latitude (maybe a bunch) necessary due to any circumstances not in the ordinary run of things. While I quoted Hagerty's rates, my point was, would that method of calculation be a reasonable way of determining value.

jim

[Bigfoot]

I think the day to day values on a really nice 66 are slightly lower than Your figures.
No offense to you 66 guys.

Buddy bought a pristine black 66, stick, no stripe SAAC concours car about 2 years ago and I keep up on values and advised him on that purchase. So I know a little.

[Greg]

I really depends (I know a generic statment).  If you look at the current private market, 65's are worth about $300K.  There are quite a few 65's that are priced at $450-$500K, but most of them don't sell.  I see the 66's in two markets, the Hertz and non-Hertz.  Since yours is not a Hertz car lets focus on "general sale" cars.  For a restored car I've seen 66's in the $180-$200K range and ones that need a lot of help as low as $90K.  Cars with their original engines will always command a higher price.

I will take a stab at the value....

A 66 shelby with the original engine and Al manual trans in non-driveable condition and all there $140-150K
A 66 Shelby with the original engine, Al manual trans in driver condition $160-$175K
Restored 66 with the original engine, Al manual trans $190-$200K

If yours needs a lot of help not original and not running but complete $100K
If yours is missing a lot of parts, rough condition and not running $90K

All this is my humble opinion and what I have seen....

[Ldouble619]

non-driver for 140-150k?  IDK about that.  You can buy a nice driver+ all day long around 120-130k.

Just look at past auctions and car listed for sale.


Here is one at 129k

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/shelby/gt350/1971588.html

[Greg]

non-driver for 140-150k?  IDK about that.  You can buy a nice driver+ all day long around 120-130k.

Just look at past auctions and car listed for sale.


Here is one at 129k

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/shelby/gt350/1971588.html

My evaluation is for one that is complete and original but not a driver due to it sitting for many years (this is not a basket case car, just a car that sat in someones garage).  You can find cars for less $ but most are automatics or coverted to manual and very little is original.  Try to find one that is all original from hood, and air cleaner to oil pan, bumper to bumper with original sheet metal.  It is very, very hard and worth $140 to $150K as you would pay $15K + for just the original date coded parts. 

[jamesfee]

I really depends (I know a generic statment).  If you look at the current private market, 65's are worth about $300K.  There are quite a few 65's that are priced at $450-$500K, but most of them don't sell.  I see the 66's in two markets, the Hertz and non-Hertz.  Since yours is not a Hertz car lets focus on "general sale" cars.  For a restored car I've seen 66's in the $180-$200K range and ones that need a lot of help as low as $90K.  Cars with their original engines will always command a higher price.

I will take a stab at the value....

A 66 shelby with the original engine and Al manual trans in non-driveable condition and all there $140-150K
A 66 Shelby with the original engine, Al manual trans in driver condition $160-$175K
Restored 66 with the original engine, Al manual trans $190-$200K

If yours needs a lot of help not original and not running but complete $100K
If your is missing a lot of parts, rough condition and not running $90K

All this is my humble opinion and what I have seen....

Thanks Greg,
I tend to agree with your line of reasoning. When I started this I was looking for a rational way to bridge the gap between the sensational numbers we tend to see from the auctions and the reality of what's sitting in my garage.
I appreciate your input.

jim

[6S1523]

Interesting line of discussion.  30+ years around these cars and I agree with the methodology that you can base the asking price on the finalized value post restoration.  The problem is getting a buyer to agree to that finalized value.  The market for these cars is all over the place right now, but let's take the example of an incorrect date code non-original block/transmission driver quality restoration.  Right now in early 2018, that seems to be a $130-140k car at most.  If you have a chassis with a good history but incorrect engine and transmission, obvious street to track to street conversion, that's probably the most you can reasonably expect the car to be worth.  If the current condition of the chassis would require $50k to make it a $140k car, no investor will give you $90k for it, you're looking at offers of $60k-$75k at most, leaving an acceptable margin in the car to profit even in the event of market fluctuations.

I made the critical error of not researching deeply enough this past fall and openly contemplated selling 6S1523.  Like you, the Hagerty info seemed an enticing guideline.  1523 needs less than $20k in restoration to be an excellent correct appearing driver, and the car has a papered history back to February 1967.  But in this market of buyers wanting "original survivors" no matter the correctness or pedigree, buyers are fierce to the point of being insulting.  One offer I received would have been a tidy 20% profit on the cars 1987 sale price, to which I politely declined.  The car is currently undergoing mechanicals in my garage and if all goes well I hope to have it in the correct red with white hue next year. 

Good luck, don't over estimate your car's worth, don't underestimate the potential for insulting offers.

[jamesfee]

Interesting line of discussion.  30+ years around these cars and I agree with the methodology that you can base the asking price on the finalized value post restoration.  The problem is getting a buyer to agree to that finalized value.  The market for these cars is all over the place right now, but let's take the example of an incorrect date code non-original block/transmission driver quality restoration.  Right now in early 2018, that seems to be a $130-140k car at most.  If you have a chassis with a good history but incorrect engine and transmission, obvious street to track to street conversion, that's probably the most you can reasonably expect the car to be worth.  If the current condition of the chassis would require $50k to make it a $140k car, no investor will give you $90k for it, you're looking at offers of $60k-$75k at most, leaving an acceptable margin in the car to profit even in the event of market fluctuations.

You've really nailed it! I am very grateful for the responses here. I honestly *do* understand that this is a fluid market and that it is quite different from where/when I started. Unfortunately, my cars are a reflection of me - I have a replaced shoulder and hip, the cars have their own analog. We will never be original again but we seem to be doing OK all the same - even if I'm not "numbers matching" <g>. I am learning what those differences are "worth".

Best of luck to you on 1523!

jim

[cboss70]

I tend to stay away from the valuation tools unless no "actual" sales results are available.  I like to go to E Bay and enter a car and select "sold" search criteria to get realistic sales results. Obviously there are other better ways of getting values- its just quick and easy.  In the case of 66's there's been a number listed but no actual recent sales history (probably due to the lofty asking prices). 

I've seen running driving NOM 66's in 2017 with asking prices in the 90's (in Hemmings etc), contemplated buying a mostly complete but apart one needing full restoration in the 60/70k range and know of one without a motor or trans with cosmetic exterior fire damage that sold in the 20's out of New England- all in 2017. I believe Brett at Cape Cod Mustang currently has a decent driver with a "asking price" of  around 140k.  I'm sure many will disagree but my opinion is that someone would actually get 80-90k for one that doesn't have the original drivetrain and doesn't run or drive (less if its rusty) and take home 90-100k for a very tired one that requires full resto but isn't rusted and runs and drives well. The caveat is that we've also seen bad or good ones unexpectedly bring crazy high and very low numbers- like rolling dice.  Just one mans opinion based on some actual 2017 sales